Scientists: Peakoil before 2020

November 13th, 2009 at 05:55pm Under peak oil

The debate about, ultimately inevitable depletion of global oil reserves, has become pervasive in recent years. It is polarized, complicated and suffers from a multitude of different interpretations of the available data.The UK Energy Research Center, a joint institute of British universities have attempted to provide greater clarity.The questions of the scientists is: What is there for supporting evidence to claim that global oil production long before 2030 will be limited by physical exhaustion?One of the outcomes is the finding that: “Many existing research focused on economic and political threats to oil production and fails to assess or otherwise integrate the risks that entail physical exhaustion. This means that the probability and consequences of various outcomes of such research are not adequately investigated. ”This coupled with the most profound conclusion:” The tipping point of global oil production will most likely take place before 2020, so there is every reason to hurry with further analysis.UKERCThe report, entitled “Global Oil Depletion”, is based on over 500 studies, analysis of industry databases and a comparison of a wide range of forecasts. This provides an urgent appeal to governments on the British researchers, the possibility of an imminent decline in oil production very seriously and to incorporate into their energy policy in 2020.

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Oil Price Hike

July 17th, 2008 at 11:31am Under Oil Price 2008+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil price+ energy prices+ peak oil

The recent hike in prices of crude oil and fuels has affected the life of common man. It was rather a slap on his face which has put the nations with economic problems in serious desperation, affecting their growth. Rather than to criticize the government and putting the blame on each other, we have to go for an analysis which will help in evaluating the reasons behind this increase in prices of essential oils and fuels.

The real reason behind such an increase in the price of oils is the scarcity of oil supply. The critical reason behind such an increase is closely connected to the global financial market. Even though this is not a single reason, this is in fact a primary reason. The increasing demand in the industrialized nations for a huge supply of oil made oil an essential commodity with large volume of trade around the globe.

The oil is sold and priced in dollar. So speculation is the major reason which dominates even the reduced supply, in case of an increase in oil prices. When dollar loses its value, oil producers will have to increase the prices. Then only, they will be able to deal with the losses they are facing in converting the dollar into their local currency. The sinking currency will, hence cause excessive debt. This makes increase in oil price and decrease in dollar value, the two sides of the same coin.

Common men are the direct victims of this high increase of oil prices. When the price of all essential commodities increases, they find life difficult to conquer. The jump in the price of petrol puts them in great trouble. The increased energy bills make life a night mare for them. Global economy is both directly and indirectly affected by the hike of oil prices. The leading countries in the world are subjected to great economic crisis when their customers face financial problems due to hike in oil price.

Inflation will grab the economy as a whole. Almost all countries are subjected to this problem, which causes an immediate attention essential towards this problem. The worst case can even lead to increase of crimes when money becomes a problem for common men. Unemployment caused due to companies trying to reduce the cost on employment will make economy to fall heavily. Economic imbalance and increased travel costs are some other areas where we can see the worst sides of increased oil price.

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The Peak Oil Theory

December 20th, 2007 at 05:30pm Under OPEC+ Oil+ Oil Theory+ Oil politics+ Production levels+ peak oil

Peak oil theory or normally known as Hubbert Peak theory states that the future word production of oil with increasing in near years and again decline at the same rate until the reserves are exhausted. This Peak Oil theory suggest the way to find out the current reserves capacity and its duration to exhaust but it has also been disregarded as mere assumption because earlier theory on similar subjects could not state the real peak time and failed without any calculations. The theory tells that when crude oil reserves starts using the similar amount of water used to extract oil then that reserve starts exhausting and fails in near future.

This theory has been successful to determine the US oil peak time which led to a decline in oil production in United States in 1971. Since then, OPEC has been determining the oil prices in international market which had led to a major oil crisis in 1973.  After the US reserves reached its peak many other countries to follow the trend including UK’s north seas which peaked in 1990, Mexico’s national oil company and China’s two major oil reserves are on decline. This has created a sudden decrease in international oil supply. But this has not created a huge panic situation because the recent finding of oil reserves in India and other countries has balanced the demand and supply of oil in markets.

It is actually very difficult to determine the time for peak of any crude oil reserve due to the unreliable accounting of oil producing countries oil reserves and uncertain production data. Some economist have said the years 1989,1995 and 1995 -2000 to be the major years of oil peak but those failed to prove because of unavailable data. Now some economist have a speculation that 2007 might be the peak year of oil and some years later for natural gas but this cannot be proven unless the reserves exhaust completely.

Whatever be the speculation of peak oil theory, the general idea is that crude oil is reducing in quantity, all around the world and unless an alternative solution is not found, the future of world remains slightly uncertain over oil prices.

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Peaking Oil Price

November 3rd, 2007 at 03:58pm Under Middle East+ Oil+ Oil company+ peak oil

In the United States the US weekly oil estimates on supply have unexpectedly decreased. This report came out on Wednesday which the American ministry of energy released. The weekly crude oil supplies, 5.288 million barrels, increased with 316.577 million barrels while analysts assumed an increase with 963,000 barrels.
The petrol supply is set to 1.931 million barrels up with193.937 million barrels. Analysts had expected here an increase with 475,000 barrels. The supplies on fuel and diesel decreased with 1.847 million barrels up to 134.471 million. Analysts expected here an increase with 250,000 barrels. So overall a negative sentiment which will not be over yet I fear.

Record again!

The price of a barrel crude oil breaks record after record these last weeks. On the future market in New York the oil hovered to 96 dollars 24 a barrel. That is the highest level ever in history. Finally a price of 100 dollars a barrel comes in sight and many investors will be very pleased, a couple of months we started this race from 53 dollar a barrel. Time flies when having fun

Dollar drop vs Oil peak

An important reason for the enormous increase on crude oil is the fact that the US dollar drops day after day. Because oil is settled up in dollars non US countries like Europe can buy a lot cheaper oil nowadays. Maybe it wasn’t a bad idea after all of the oil producing countries (OPEC) to value oil based on a currency like the Euro. This idea came up last summer during the oil price dip of 2007. Now the OPEC gets in fact less money for the same barrel, thank you weak dollar, thank your Mr. Bush

According to Shell the crude oil price is forced up by speculations. The record price for a barrel of the previous weeks is partly increased on speculation and political tensions and not by a poor supply.

Political bonus

These words where said by the CFO of Shell, Peter Voser, in an explanation on the third quarter figures of his company. According to him the prices seem be floated by speculation. He added to that there is a political bonus presented in the current oil price. The price for a barrel Brent crude oil (North Sea oil) reached Thursday a record of 86.28 dollar, peaked by the tensions between Turkey and Kurdish militants.

OPEC covers Shell’s back
Shell doesn’t stands on its own regarding its opinion on the recent peaking of the oil price. Also the OPEC stated that a large part of the increase of the crude oil price in the previous months has been caused by market speculation. According to the OPEC there is no lack on the supply side and the market is very well foreseen. According to the OPEC beside speculation, problems with refining, continuing geopolitical problems in the Middle East and fluctuations of the American US dollar plays a big role. But also Mexico is a source of care for the price of crude oil. In Mexico 20% of the production have been cut because there is a storm heading. Furthermore the incurring tensions in the Middle East are doing no good to the price of black gold. The United States will impose sanctions against Iran and Turkish troops have arrived at the border of Iraq for a possible attack on Kurdish militants. The OPEC forecasts higher prices if the tensions will keep on front the upcoming weeks.

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How many barrels till Peak Oil?

October 26th, 2007 at 04:41pm Under Crude oil+ Fossil fuels+ Fuel Oil+ Oil+ bio ethanol+ energy prices+ peak oil

Human-beings are for their development dependent on their energy reserves. More energy means a more rapidly and sophisticated a society. Energy is everything, literal. The current society depends almost entirely on oil and gas. The industrial revolution was fed by fossile fuels. In former days in the form of coals, nowadays in the form of oil and gas. Almost every aspect of our daily life is made with, or gets energy by, fossil fuels. It stipulates our manner of life, our look on the world, how we live and where we live.

Industries are entirely depending on their energy supplies like oil and gas so suppliers can use our need for energy for political aims by threatening to stop energy supplies. A recent example of this is Russia, which uses gas as a political power against neighbors like Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus.

Too conservative
The volume of the worldwide oil stock reserve is difficult to calculate. Optimists and pessimists continue contradict each other in this. Some countries also benefit by underestimating or over-estimating their oil reserves. Although the world wide oil supply reserves are annually reported in the “Oil and gas Journal“ but these quantity figures are impossible to independently check.. Furthermore it is not possible to tell how much oil will be found in the near and far future. According to some scientists half of the totally valued quantity of oil on earth has been pumped and refined already. According to optimists it still lasts decades before we will reach the point of “peak oil” and then what?

Because of the development of advanced technology oil will be will pumped for quite a while. Even sources which were formerly considered as exhausted can be obtained in the future in a cost-effective way. Up to at the beginning of the next century.

It is certain, that the demand for oil will only continue to increase. New emerging markets and economies, such as China and India, and the increasing world population will ask for more and more energy. If the pessimists are right and we reach the moment of peak oil shortly, the supply of oil will become less every year. The impact is serious, because every aspect of our life is influenced as a result of it. We must reconsider our world energy regime to be not too much dependent of other countries for our energy, on the other side to limit CO2-emissions.

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