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OPEC | OILISM Crude Oil Resources, Prices, History and Analysis

Crude Oil September '08 Future

(NY Mercantile:CLU08.NYM)

Heating Oil September '08 Future

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Natural Gas September '08 Future

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OPEC

The Petrodollar warfare

December 23rd, 2007 at 06:41pm Under Crude oil+ OPEC+ Oil+ Oil Theory+ Oil industry+ Oil politics

This is word that has hiding meaning with it which is sometimes coined as the hidden foreign policy of United states that has helped the US dollar to remain the world’ main currency in international trade and in which the oil is priced. It is also sometimes termed as oil currency war. This single most policy of United States have kept US in fore front of many international decisions and made US a world leader for last many decades.

Petrodollar OilismThere is a thought that the petrodollar warfare has kept the US dollar as world currency because some main commodities like oil and natural gases is traded in dollar and if the denomination of trading oil and gases is moved to any other currency like pound then most countries will start selling their dollar reserves bringing a quick shift in the US dollar price. Once the price of dollar goes down it will directly hurt the US economy bringing a rise in inflation and many other economic determinants. US administration officials are scared that if the denomination of oil is changed then that’s going to literally damage the position of US in international politics. This fear of loosing status was supposed to be main reason behind the US invasion in Iraq since Iraqi administration had changed the  currency to trade oil from dollar to Euro in late 2000 but that was later again revoked in 2003 after the invasion.

The oil price and US dollar seem to be inversely proportional in times. Once the oil prices start rising the dollar goes down as when dollar strengthens it lowers the price of oil and viceversa. SO that makes United States in position which can determine the role of oil in its favor by using undermined policies. The physical location of major oil reserves too has determining factor in this industry so United States always has tries to keep a hold on currency that the whole industry is trading with.

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The rising oil price trend in the recent years

December 23rd, 2007 at 06:33pm Under China Oil+ Crude oil+ Historical oil prices+ Middle East+ OPEC+ Oil+ Oil politics+ Oil price+ Production levels

The price of oil was well low at $25/barrel in late 2003 but jumped to double at whooping $60/barrel in the mid 2005. There was an uncontrolled change in the price of oil in most of times since 2005 to 2006 with some high and downs but settled at around $50-$60/barel in the early 2007. But this was not enough so it raised more above the price of $92/barrel in late 207 and ended up at about $99.29 in NYMEX futures in November end of 2007.

This clearly shows that oil prices has been increasing by passing years and the price tag of $100/’ barrel is clear to cross in the year 2008. Perhaps the price may increase above that if there are political conflicts in Middle East or any more OPEC production cuts.  This uncertainty in the oil prices shows the indication of inflation of 1980 which was led to an economic recession. There are many philosophies that has attributed that US economic and political factors like UR-Iran conflict, North Korea Missile Launch, Israel- Lebanon crisis and decreasing US oil reserves are some determine factors of international oil prices.

There are many reasons to decrease in supply of oil that is main factor being increasing oil prices. The demands and supply policy of economics makes it true as if when ever the oil supplying countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia cut down the oil supplies then that is going to bring a surge in price in international market. The conflict in Middle East is the major reason behind this and even outside Middles East countries like Venezuela and other African countries producing oil have been facing local unrest like strikes and civil wars that has forced for decrease in oil supplies. Moreover the increasing terrorism by certain faction of people in oil rich countries has added to this price increase of oil.

A recent survey shows that the total supply of oil in recent times is 83 million barrel per day which is more than any other time in the history but the speculation that the a major Peak oil situation is nearing and a reducing oil supply is just in the near future has created a panic situation in the international market. Few secondary factors like OPEC supply cut and decreased value of dollar is too important reason for sudden increase in oil prices.

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What’s behind the Game of Oil?

December 20th, 2007 at 05:39pm Under Crude oil+ OPEC+ Oil+ Oil politics

More than in a half century long history Oil, has been the only one determining factor on international economy. The rise and fall in oil prices have shivered most of the biggest industry through out the world. Since the end of world war I oil has become the single most valuable element of shivering the entire economy of developed countries like US, UK and most of EU. Many other smaller factors have risen up since then but the politics of oil was the only determining factor for the Gulf war and Invasion of Iraq. Most economist and activist all around the world have the same assumption that oil was the only reason behind such tragictry events killing more than million people on both sides. This is the oil theory that has proved the sole supremacy of US over the world and has kept Russia in a leading position in the international politics despite their economy being poor and loose organizational structure.

Stopping the Oil imperialism

Most of the countries that produce crude oil hardly spends the money on their economic development or have public funds for such expenditure. The citizens of such countries have absolutely no role in the trade of oil. That benefits goes directly to the minority of people that control the whole process of selling and purchasing of oil. One intermediate solution to this problem can be using the oil as a public utility. According to this process, the handling of oil and its resources is given to private sector but the price is set by the public utilities department which controls the monopolization by any single entity.

The politics of Oil has some really hard dent on the international humanity like the 1990 Gulf war and recent invasion of Iraq; if the uncontrolled game of Oilisim is not stopped or controlled by the collective human support of all countries involved in it then it will surely bring in few more devastating events in near future. After the invasion in Iraq, US is already eyeing on Iran and Syria and a small fire from any side can light up the whole warfare scenario again which can be more devastating that earlier once. This should be stopped as the world needs some chance for peace, especially around Christmas.

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The Peak Oil Theory

December 20th, 2007 at 05:30pm Under OPEC+ Oil+ Oil Theory+ Oil politics+ Production levels+ peak oil

Peak oil theory or normally known as Hubbert Peak theory states that the future word production of oil with increasing in near years and again decline at the same rate until the reserves are exhausted. This Peak Oil theory suggest the way to find out the current reserves capacity and its duration to exhaust but it has also been disregarded as mere assumption because earlier theory on similar subjects could not state the real peak time and failed without any calculations. The theory tells that when crude oil reserves starts using the similar amount of water used to extract oil then that reserve starts exhausting and fails in near future.

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This theory has been successful to determine the US oil peak time which led to a decline in oil production in United States in 1971. Since then, OPEC has been determining the oil prices in international market which had led to a major oil crisis in 1973.  After the US reserves reached its peak many other countries to follow the trend including UK’s north seas which peaked in 1990, Mexico’s national oil company and China’s two major oil reserves are on decline. This has created a sudden decrease in international oil supply. But this has not created a huge panic situation because the recent finding of oil reserves in India and other countries has balanced the demand and supply of oil in markets.

It is actually very difficult to determine the time for peak of any crude oil reserve due to the unreliable accounting of oil producing countries oil reserves and uncertain production data. Some economist have said the years 1989,1995 and 1995 -2000 to be the major years of oil peak but those failed to prove because of unavailable data. Now some economist have a speculation that 2007 might be the peak year of oil and some years later for natural gas but this cannot be proven unless the reserves exhaust completely.

Whatever be the speculation of peak oil theory, the general idea is that crude oil is reducing in quantity, all around the world and unless an alternative solution is not found, the future of world remains slightly uncertain over oil prices.

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No production increase by OPEC

December 3rd, 2007 at 06:33pm Under Middle East+ OPEC+ Production levels+ energy prices

THE OPEC does not want raise oil production. According to the OPEC there is no shortage to oil at this stage.

90 dollars
THE OPEC, the organisation of oil exporting countries, have decided not to increase oil production levels  at this moment especially now crude oil prices decreased up to under the 90 dollars a barrel. This has been communicated by OPEC ministers just for the beginning of the meeting in Abu Dhabi.

No Oil shortage
Spokesmen from among others OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, Libya and Qatar also agree that the market shows no proof of a shortage for oil. According to the ministers there is nothing wrong with oil supplies controlled by OPEC, although crude oil prices are still relatively high.

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