Oil
November 3rd, 2007 at 03:58pm
Under Middle East+ Oil+ peak oil
| On the oil market concerns rose these week because of the unexpected drop in oil supplies and reserves while the US is getting ready for winter.On the future crude oil market the price of a barrel US crude oil (of 159 liters) headed towards the record of 96.24 dollar, but and the end of a week trading the price sledded back to under the 96 dollars a barrel.The price of a barrel North Sea Brent Oil reached a peak of 91.71 dollar. |
In the United States the US weekly oil estimates on supply have unexpectedly decreased. This report came out on Wednesday which the American ministry of energy released. The weekly crude oil supplies, 5.288 million barrels, increased with 316.577 million barrels while analysts assumed an increase with 963,000 barrels.
The petrol supply is set to 1.931 million barrels up with193.937 million barrels. Analysts had expected here an increase with 475,000 barrels. The supplies on fuel and diesel decreased with 1.847 million barrels up to 134.471 million. Analysts expected here an increase with 250,000 barrels. So overall a negative sentiment which will not be over yet I fear.
Record again!
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The price of a barrel crude oil breaks record after record these last weeks. On the future market in New York the oil hovered to 96 dollars 24 a barrel. That is the highest level ever in history. Finally a price of 100 dollars a barrel comes in sight and many investors will be very pleased, a couple of months we started this race from 53 dollar a barrel. Time flies when having fun 
Dollar drop vs Oil peak
An important reason for the enormous increase on crude oil is the fact that the US dollar drops day after day. Because oil is settled up in dollars non US countries like Europe can buy a lot cheaper oil nowadays. Maybe it wasn’t a bad idea after all of the oil producing countries (OPEC) to value oil based on a currency like the Euro. This idea came up last summer during the oil price dip of 2007. Now the OPEC gets in fact less money for the same barrel, thank you weak dollar, thank your Mr. Bush
According to Shell the crude oil price is forced up by speculations. The record price for a barrel of the previous weeks is partly increased on speculation and political tensions and not by a poor supply.
Political bonus
These words where said by the CFO of Shell, Peter Voser, in an explanation on the third quarter figures of his company. According to him the prices seem be floated by speculation. He added to that there is a political bonus presented in the current oil price. The price for a barrel Brent crude oil (North Sea oil) reached Thursday a record of 86.28 dollar, peaked by the tensions between Turkey and Kurdish militants.
OPEC covers Shell’s back
Shell doesn’t stands on its own regarding its opinion on the recent peaking of the oil price. Also the OPEC stated that a large part of the increase of the crude oil price in the previous months has been caused by market speculation. According to the OPEC there is no lack on the supply side and the market is very well foreseen. According to the OPEC beside speculation, problems with refining, continuing geopolitical problems in the Middle East and fluctuations of the American US dollar plays a big role. But also Mexico is a source of care for the price of crude oil. In Mexico 20% of the production have been cut because there is a storm heading. Furthermore the incurring tensions in the Middle East are doing no good to the price of black gold. The United States will impose sanctions against Iran and Turkish troops have arrived at the border of Iraq for a possible attack on Kurdish militants. The OPEC forecasts higher prices if the tensions will keep on front the upcoming weeks.
By Oilism.com
October 26th, 2007 at 04:41pm
Under Crude oil+ Oil+ energy prices+ peak oil
Human-beings are for their development dependent on their energy reserves. More energy means a more rapidly and sophisticated a society. Energy is everything, literal. The current society depends almost entirely on oil and gas. The industrial revolution was fed by fossile fuels. In former days in the form of coals, nowadays in the form of oil and gas. Almost every aspect of our daily life is made with, or gets energy by, fossil fuels. It stipulates our manner of life, our look on the world, how we live and where we live.
Industries are entirely depending on their energy supplies like oil and gas so suppliers can use our need for energy for political aims by threatening to stop energy supplies. A recent example of this is Russia, which uses gas as a political power against neighbors like Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus.
Too conservative
The volume of the worldwide oil stock reserve is difficult to calculate. Optimists and pessimists continue contradict each other in this. Some countries also benefit by underestimating or over-estimating their oil reserves. Although the world wide oil supply reserves are annually reported in the “Oil and gas Journal“ but these quantity figures are impossible to independently check.. Furthermore it is not possible to tell how much oil will be found in the near and far future. According to some scientists half of the totally valued quantity of oil on earth has been pumped and refined already. According to optimists it still lasts decades before we will reach the point of “peak oil” and then what?
Because of the development of advanced technology oil will be will pumped for quite a while. Even sources which were formerly considered as exhausted can be obtained in the future in a cost-effective way. Up to at the beginning of the next century.
It is certain, that the demand for oil will only continue to increase. New emerging markets and economies, such as China and India, and the increasing world population will ask for more and more energy. If the pessimists are right and we reach the moment of peak oil shortly, the supply of oil will become less every year. The impact is serious, because every aspect of our life is influenced as a result of it. We must reconsider our world energy regime to be not too much dependent of other countries for our energy, on the other side to limit CO2-emissions.
By Oilism.com
October 25th, 2007 at 04:46pm
Under Crude oil+ Middle East+ Oil
The question to the continously oil price increase and the speed by what this happens coincides closely with the economic growth. The oil industry has appeared to be able to discover new reserves and as a result, the stock level kept in place, in spite of the increased demand for crude oil during the previous years. Though there are reasons enough for to concern.
The oil industry has already indicated that she is no longer able to discover new reserves and get these new plants fast enough in production to pump up the crude oil to keep the speed as before.
The time in which new reserves could become against relatively restricted production costs are definitely send to the past.
New reserves are more and more discovered at difficult places and the production goes accompanied by technological problems which cost very much!
It is known that the middle of east contains the largest oil reserves of the world. In the current production speed the Middle East region can still live 90 years of these reserves, with these figures she stands way above the other regions. On a good 2nd place comes forward South/Central America that still has 40 years to go on its oil reserves. Africa comes on the third place where a country as Nigeria has the largest reserve. Then Europe comes on a fourth place if Russia is also counted, that has an important and big reserve. On the 5th place the region Asia-Pacific and on the last place North America.
The official oil reserves have grown in the period from 1995 up to 2007 with 17%, whereas the production in the same period has grown by 19%.
Evolution
At this moment there is still no shortage of oil although that threat arises in the future. Even without an oil shortage, crude oil increased strongly to a top of more than 90 dollars in September 2007.
Now the oil reserve is no longer increasing and in the future gradually reduces, it can be expected that the price of crude oil will become more volatile. The peak oil prices will get stable on higher levels. Beside the increasing shortage for oil the delivery of additional oil reserves will considerably more precious than in the past. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq which has the largest reserves, can produce against relatively low costs and have sufficient surplus to export oil.
Due the strong economic growth of the last years and consequently strong demand increase for finished refined oil products, the refineries occupancy has been very high last years. It costs a lot of time to develop an oil refinery, getting a license and building takes years. This resulted in enormous profits for the refineries. A situation which changes if the price of crude oil (temporarily) decreases by a delay in the economic growth. Especially if that delay takes place in countries 
which have a large oil usage, such as the United States and China.
Supply and demand
The Middle East is with 19.821 million barrels by far the largest exporter of crude oil and the major part of it goes direction to the Far East. Japan takes 4.269 million barrels per day, China 1.360 million barrels and the other countries in that region are together well for 7.466 million barrels per day. The former Soviet Union is the second largest exporter with 7.076 million barrels per day. The European countries are grateful consumers with 5.811 million barrels per day.
The region North-America imports 9.668 barrels per day. Canada and Mexico are exporters, whereas the United States if individual country globally largest importers are with 13.525 – 1.129 = 12.396 million barrels per day.
Conclusion
Last decades the oil industry has proven to be able to keep the reserve, in spite of the increased usage, at the same levels by discovering new oil sites. The chance that she succeeds the same job in the coming decades is much smaller; moreover the costs of winning oil from new reserves will strongly increase. By the decrease in life span of the worldwide oil reserve the price of crude oil will tend higher for the upcoming years, where considerable fluctuations can appear. If you are a commodity trader, be aware!
The Middle East has the largest oil reserve as a result of which they will be to provide the world longest with crude oil. The export of crude oil aims mainly for the Far East, which makes the rapidly growing countries from that region dependent to satisfy to their strongly increasing need for crude oil. By the increasing shortage of oil, the extremism and the many conflicts can cause geopolitical tensions in the rest of the world
By Oilism.com
October 24th, 2007 at 03:04pm
Under Oil+ Oil price
Oil Prices
By Oilism.com
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