Oil Price 2009
March 11th, 2009 at 05:53am
Under China Oil+ Crude oil+ OPEC+ Oil+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil Price 2010+ Production levels
OPEC has more reason than ever to cut the oil productions. Will the oil cartel be able the push back oil prices again?
“A price of 75 dollars a barrel is fair for oil producers and consumers. This is said by Saudi Arabia last year, according to Bloomberg. With this in
mind is a further reduction of the oil production by OPEC this week is certainly not unlikely. With over 40% of the total world production is the power of OPEC
very big.
Since the Brent Crude Oil futures on July 11, 2008 set a record oil price of $ 147.50 it got in a free fall. On December 24, 2008 the oil price hit as low as USD36.20, a decrease of 75% in five months. It is therefore not surprising that oil producers benefit of oil production cuts. Since September 2008, the OPEC production is already decrease with 13%. The oil price is now stabilized, the crude oil futures move since early 2009 within a bandwidth of 39 and 52 dollars.
Market focus mainly on oil demand failure
The oil markets focussed in the past few months with more attention to OPEC and the production side. Traders look today way more to the demand side of the oil market. That is not crazy, given the recession in the U.S. The U.S. labor market figures on Friday March 6 to speak for it self. Unemployment rose to 8.1% in February 2009, the highest level in 25 years. Moreover the U.S. lost in the last quarter a small 2 million jobs, the fastest pace since 1939 when analysts began tracking the data. With one quarter of the global oil consumption is the demand from the U.S. very important.
The recession & financial crisis is for sure not limited to the USA only. For example, the World Bank stated that the entire world economy will show shrinkage for the first time since 1945. Proving the demand for oil is closely connected with the growth of world economy. The black gold is indispensable for transport, industry and many other sectors. If economic activity is declining, falling demand for oil is a logical trend you can expect. The International Energy Agency (IEA) are taking into account a decline in demand for oil in 2009 by 1.1% year on year to 84.7 million barrels of crude oil per day, even after a decline in 2008 0.4% 5. Two years of falling demand figures didn’t occurred since 1982/1983, says the IEA.
Where should an oil investor look out for?
The oil price is obviously determined by demand and supply at this moment. If OPEC again decreases the oil production, it can have a big impact on current oil prices. In the last few days we already could notice some upwards movements: the price of oil rose Monday in New York to the highest level in six weken. In the upcoming months, for each oil investor of today it is important to focus on the development of both demand as the supply side of crude oil. This week first – very cautious – Signs of recovery on the demand side were noticed. The U.S. business confidence ISM rose for the second month in a row. While China – the second biggest oil consumer in the world – takes an economic growth in 2009 8% in to account.
On the supply side are the current developments around OPEC of big importancy. Geopolitical tensions in Nigeria, Iran could influence worldwide oil markets. In time, the crisis could trigger higher oil prices says the IEA. The sharp drop in oil prices makes investing in new oil production capacity unattractive and can put the oil supplies in 2009 further under pressure.
By Oilism.com
January 21st, 2009 at 05:31am
Under China Oil+ Middle East+ OPEC+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil and gas+ Oil politics+ Russian Oil & Gas
By signing the gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine the oil price fell back sharply. The price of a barrel of U.S. light crude oil now hovers around 34 dollars, a decrease of over 7 percent with earlier this week.
In December 2008, crude oil prices fell for the first time since the summer of 2004 under the 40 dollar per barrel barrier. In July 2008, oil prices showed a record of more than 147 dollars a barrel.
The oil price now strongly react on the developments in the Middle East and the gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Prime Minister Julia Timosjenko Russian gas will continue to flow to Ukraine and other European customers as from yesterday.
Credit Crisis & Oil demand
The oil price falls due a weakening oil demand. After 25 years of growth, the demand for oil in 2008 decreased by 0.3 percent. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that the worldwide oil demand in 2009 will fall further, probably by 0.6 percent.
For 2009, the IEA expects we will see a bottom in the oil demand, lowering with 940,000 barrels of crude oil per day to 85.3 million in total. “It’s the biggest change in our estimate over the last couple of years,” said David Fyfe of the IEA chief marketing officer.
In earlier reports, the institute published a growth for 2009 in oil demand after the losses of 2008, this mainly based upon the increasing demand of the emerging economies. But, these estimates are now showing that the Chinese oil demand will grow with just 90,000 barrels a day, which is the lowest increase in eight years time.
By Oilism.com
January 7th, 2009 at 05:43am
Under Oil Price 2009+ Oil and gas+ Oil business+ Oil politics+ Russian Oil & Gas
KIEV – On Wednesday Russia shut down all gas deliveries intended for the European market through the pipelines in the Ukraine because of the gas conflict between Kiev and Moscow.
This is said by the Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz. About 80 percent of Russian natural gas that is destined for Europe passes through pipelines in Ukraine.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is without any Russian gas. Local news agency CTK reported Wednesday all supplies of Russian gas are interrupted. Gas company RWE Transgas has taken steps to increase imports from Norway to help people who are trapped without gas.
Austria & Romania
Austria also announced Wednesday that all gas supplies from Russia are stopped. Futher more Romania reported not receiving any more gas from Russia since Wednesday. Tuesday, the gas supplies to Romania were already down by 75 percent.
Supplies
Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said Tuesday that if the Ukraine does not pass the gas to Europe, there is no point supplying this country with gas. Kiev and Moscow are arguing over an unpaid gas bill and the gas prices in general. Three years ago, Russia turned off the gas tap to Ukraine due a similar dispute.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko asked Russia in a letter to President Dmitri Medvedev to resume gas deliveries to European countries immediately.
Criticism EU summit on Russian oil conflict
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, thinks it is unacceptable that Russia stopped supplying oil & gas to Western Europe. Barroso said this today after consultations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who joined in the criticism against Russia.
Especially German and Polish refineries are the victims of the oil conflict. Russia closed yesterday by the oil Belarus to these countries. In a package of proposals from the European Commission, which will be presented tomorrow, has been clear that the EU should take action to reduce the reliance on Russia as an energy supplier. Half of the oil in Europe comes from Russia. According to a report, the European economy will crash sooner or later when the energy policies are not drastically changed. Barroso askes for joint energy policy in Europe.
By Oilism.com
December 28th, 2008 at 03:22pm
Under Crude oil+ Historical oil prices+ Oil Price 2008+ Oil Price 2009+ energy prices
Oil prices significantly lower! In London quoted a barrel of Brent oil $ 37.49, its lowest level since December 2004.
The prices of crude oil fell more than expected last week on US oil markets. Due an Oil stock report published on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy. These figures showed a stronger increase than most analysts expected. The stocks of crude oil increased with 3.101 billion barrels to 318.188 billion barrels of crude oil.
In Cushing, Oklahoma, oil stocks rose with 1.2 million barrels to a record high of 28.7 million barrels. This stock is used for the distribution of the oil used for Nymex future trading markets. Petrol stocks rose by 3.336 billion barrels to 207.295 billion barrels. Analysts here calculated an increase of 600,000 barrels. The stocks of heating oil and diesel increased also a lot stronger than expected, 1814 million barrels to a grand total of 135.337 billion barrels. Analysts here assumed a decline of 100,000 barrels. It is obvious our oil specialist, future brokers and technical analysts were betting on the wrong side again the last couple of weeks. Worldwide oil markets are showing drastic volatile downwards moves since the summer of 2008. This picture shows oil prices from 2001 till 2009 and it may be clear that oil prices of 200 USD are far away and we are back on the levels of 2004 within six months time.
Wow what a rollercoaster ride it was!
Our reporters tell us sentiment is on its lowest and that counts the same for the trade. ‘It’s because of the world economy and the underlying feeling that there is no better side on this moment, “said an oil trader in London. “There is also a lack of buyers in the market, the price terms.” Because of the weak outlook for the world economy, many analysts and traders think that the downward trend in oil prices probably will continue for a while. “I expect that we will descend toward the $ 30, then you will see that a few big buyer will be back … It will all depend on the weather and what OPEC exactly will do in 2009,” said associated trader in London.
By Oilism.com
November 12th, 2008 at 05:55pm
Under OPEC+ Oil Price 2008+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil price+ Production levels+ energy prices
NEW YORK – Oil prices fell Wednesday to its lowest level in 22 months time. That was caused by speculation about a reduction in demand due to the deteriorating economic conditions.
A barrel of U.S. crude oil (159 liters) fell by 5.8 percent to 55.86 dollars.
The U.S. government gave an extra boost to speculations by downwards adjusting the forecast for global oil demand for 2009.
Oil Consumption
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) expects that consumption will decline slightly next year to an average 85.9 million barrels per day.
The demand in the United States, the largest buyer of crude oil in the world, will decrease with more than 1 million barrels per day. That is since 1980 not seen on the world wide oil markets.
OPEC
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) told earlier this week oil productions will further decrease as the oil price continues to fall.
Last week, OPEC reduced production already with 1.5 million barrels per day, but the price of crude oil barely reacted to this production cut.
Last July, oil prices reached another record high of 147 dollars per barrel. Then the price plummet quickly followed by an OPEC production cut not long after that .
By Oilism.com
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