January 11th, 2010 at 10:06am
Under China Oil
A couple weeks in a row the price of a barrel crude oil rose but last Thursday China made an end to the oil price party. For now at least, due an economic recovery in the offing, analysts expect that the demand for oil will further increase in the coming months rather than decrease.The Chinese central bank Thursday shook oil investors in oil and woke them up from their dream of ever rising oil prices. The continuing cold weather in Europe and parts of the United States was the main reason of the quick oil price rally in the last couple of weeks. The price of a barrel crude oil rose more than $11 in ten days, leading to a price of around $ 83, the highest in fifteen months.As surprise for many among us the monetary authorities in China broke with the easy and broad policy of lending money to banks. A monetary tightening policy could lead to a lower growth of the Chinese economy and thus a decrease in demand for oil on the long term. These descisions of China, the second largest consumer of oil, had a direct effect on the oil price last week. In New York was the price of a barrel of oil during the first hours trading almost a U.S. dollar per barrel down. Later this drop weakened down to $ 0.45 to $ 83.73. In London the price of oil was also $0.45 back to $81,44.
Fuel for the Economy
In recent years, the Chinese banking system of provided the economy with enough liquidity to fight the economic crisis. Banks were ordered to provide much financial credits to the economic engine to provide sufficient fuel to face the problems of an economic downturn. It succeeded because the growth in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) has remained a normal level during this period.The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, is clearly done with this broad policy for the banks and so adjusted the policy overnight. Analysts expect the monetary authorities to skim the liquidity of commercial banks by 137 billion yuan ($ 20 billion this week. This is the largest decrease in eleven weeks. ”Lending to the industrial sector is less interesting,” as said by analyst from Barclays Capital. An official interest rate increase is not expected before the second half of this year. (more…)
By Oilism.com
November 13th, 2009 at 06:10pm
Under Crude oil+ energy prices
Oil price: Prevent panic buyingThis suggested by a whistleblower of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in an interview in British newspaper The Guardian. The IEA calculates the threat of deficits to low, in order to avoid panic buying of specific levels of the price for a barrel of crude oil.
U.S.
According to a senior member of the IEA, the U.S. played an important role in encouraging the IEA to adjust the levels of existing oil fields are pumped to underestimated, while the chances of finding new fields would be overestimated.World Energy OutlookThe allegations of the IEA-employee raises questions about the correctness of the World Energy Outlook from the IEA’s demand and supply of oil. Many governments base their policies on this.Peak oilIn the most recent World Economic Outlook predicted that oil production will rise from the current level of 83 million barrels per day to 105 million barrels. Critics have often argued that this is not possible and that the world has a peak in oil production is passed.The World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is used in the energy policies of many Western countries. It is considered the most reliable source for data on energy. Nevertheless, for years criticized the way the IEA forecast is about the oil.In several international newspapers today a message from the British newspaper The Guardian accepted that an anonymous member of the International Energy Agency criticized strongly the way the oil institute figures bring out. The employee claimed that this exaggerated proposed to prevent panic in the oil market.The piece in The Guardian is a repetition of rumors that reverberate for years.That the criticism is to give the figures of the IEA is not dependent on just anonymous whistleblowers.Last year the weblog Oildrum published an analysis to the data behind the World Energy Outlook 2008 and came to the conclusion that it is necessary to note the way the investigators of the IEA use data into their conclusions.Also this year Oildrum will take a closer look into the World Energy Outlook 2009.Both our own research and that such a group of British universities of the UKERC come to different conclusions as the International Energy Agency, raises the question whether it is wise to the figures of the IEA to use some support for our energy.
By Oilism.com
November 13th, 2009 at 05:55pm
Under peak oil
The debate about, ultimately inevitable depletion of global oil reserves, has become pervasive in recent years. It is polarized, complicated and suffers from a multitude of different interpretations of the available data.The UK Energy Research Center, a joint institute of British universities have attempted to provide greater clarity.The questions of the scientists is: What is there for supporting evidence to claim that global oil production long before 2030 will be limited by physical exhaustion?One of the outcomes is the finding that: “Many existing research focused on economic and political threats to oil production and fails to assess or otherwise integrate the risks that entail physical exhaustion. This means that the probability and consequences of various outcomes of such research are not adequately investigated. ”This coupled with the most profound conclusion:” The tipping point of global oil production will most likely take place before 2020, so there is every reason to hurry with further analysis.UKERCThe report, entitled “Global Oil Depletion”, is based on over 500 studies, analysis of industry databases and a comparison of a wide range of forecasts. This provides an urgent appeal to governments on the British researchers, the possibility of an imminent decline in oil production very seriously and to incorporate into their energy policy in 2020.
By Oilism.com
March 11th, 2009 at 05:53am
Under China Oil+ Crude oil+ OPEC+ Oil+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil Price 2010+ Production levels
OPEC has more reason than ever to cut the oil productions. Will the oil cartel be able the push back oil prices again?
“A price of 75 dollars a barrel is fair for oil producers and consumers. This is said by Saudi Arabia last year, according to Bloomberg. With this in
mind is a further reduction of the oil production by OPEC this week is certainly not unlikely. With over 40% of the total world production is the power of OPEC
very big.
Since the Brent Crude Oil futures on July 11, 2008 set a record oil price of $ 147.50 it got in a free fall. On December 24, 2008 the oil price hit as low as USD36.20, a decrease of 75% in five months. It is therefore not surprising that oil producers benefit of oil production cuts. Since September 2008, the OPEC production is already decrease with 13%. The oil price is now stabilized, the crude oil futures move since early 2009 within a bandwidth of 39 and 52 dollars.
Market focus mainly on oil demand failure
The oil markets focussed in the past few months with more attention to OPEC and the production side. Traders look today way more to the demand side of the oil market. That is not crazy, given the recession in the U.S. The U.S. labor market figures on Friday March 6 to speak for it self. Unemployment rose to 8.1% in February 2009, the highest level in 25 years. Moreover the U.S. lost in the last quarter a small 2 million jobs, the fastest pace since 1939 when analysts began tracking the data. With one quarter of the global oil consumption is the demand from the U.S. very important.
The recession & financial crisis is for sure not limited to the USA only. For example, the World Bank stated that the entire world economy will show shrinkage for the first time since 1945. Proving the demand for oil is closely connected with the growth of world economy. The black gold is indispensable for transport, industry and many other sectors. If economic activity is declining, falling demand for oil is a logical trend you can expect. The International Energy Agency (IEA) are taking into account a decline in demand for oil in 2009 by 1.1% year on year to 84.7 million barrels of crude oil per day, even after a decline in 2008 0.4% 5. Two years of falling demand figures didn’t occurred since 1982/1983, says the IEA.
Where should an oil investor look out for?
The oil price is obviously determined by demand and supply at this moment. If OPEC again decreases the oil production, it can have a big impact on current oil prices. In the last few days we already could notice some upwards movements: the price of oil rose Monday in New York to the highest level in six weken. In the upcoming months, for each oil investor of today it is important to focus on the development of both demand as the supply side of crude oil. This week first - very cautious - Signs of recovery on the demand side were noticed. The U.S. business confidence ISM rose for the second month in a row. While China - the second biggest oil consumer in the world - takes an economic growth in 2009 8% in to account.
On the supply side are the current developments around OPEC of big importancy. Geopolitical tensions in Nigeria, Iran could influence worldwide oil markets. In time, the crisis could trigger higher oil prices says the IEA. The sharp drop in oil prices makes investing in new oil production capacity unattractive and can put the oil supplies in 2009 further under pressure.
By Oilism.com
February 21st, 2009 at 05:37pm
Under Crude oil+ Future Chain+ Oil Price 2010+ Oil business+ Oil industry+ energy prices
Crude Oil exchange is described as a free market economy because investors are not really sure whether their invested money will get any revenue or not, because of it’s volatile nature. We do not have to mention that the price of barrel of crude was just less than 7 months ago above 130 USD! Some may say that it’s a gamble but it’s also a form of a rich quick scheme when you hit the jackpot on the low levels of today. Oil exchange has this flexibility that no other investment option can offer, as quick as we go up we go down and the other way around. There’s little harm, if you look it risk-wise to start trading oil today and invest some of your savings left to take some long term oil positions.
You decide on how you will use your money when trading in oil related investments, this can be in the form of day trading or as a stored value of oil assets. You can buy big oil company shares as your form of oil investment and will gain profits if the prices of the oil company shares increase in line with the oil price when the recession comes to its end. Otherwise we advice you to trade directly in NYMEX or North sea Crude oil futures.
Even though stock and oil markets have unsure possibilities it also depends on intelligent moves taken by the oil investor himself. This is reflected on how deep the investor really knows oil market, is not really that tough to understand as many people will perceive initially but you need to investigated and do your homework. Internet has a big role in gaining knowledge of the worldwide oil & stockmarkets. On Internet you can find information related to any subject of the crude oil industry, like companies, forecasts and researches.
Moreover, your life as an oil investor will be much easier because of the use of online trading systems. Today’s oil trading process is much easier as compared with earlier system and has various advantages.
Think over today’s situation on the oil markets and reconsider if it is not the perfect time to start building your own oil related share portfolio. Many investment companies also offer oil related mutual funds. A mutual fund diversify your investment among many oil companies and you can earn easily with less risk.
By Oilism.com
February 20th, 2009 at 05:44pm
Under China Oil+ Middle East+ Oil+ Oil Price 2010+ Oil politics+ Production levels
From next year a lack of oil arise as the world economy recovers from the current deep recession.
This is said by the chief executive of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka, he states that oil producers are investing too little in new projects with current market circumstances.
”The demand for oil is very low because of the extremely poor economic conditions. But if the recovery quick, likely first signals occur after 2010, we face a serious supply problem, if the investments do not increase’’said Tanaka.
Oil Projects
The members of oil cartel OPEC said earlier this month that they are disappointed, because of demand for oil thirty-five of all new oil projects are set on the long term.
Tanaka expects oil demand will grow next year by 1 percent, thanks to the recovery of growth in emerging economies like China and India. This year, the need for oil by the global recession is likely(for sure) lower than a year earlier.
Production
The chief executive of French oil group Total, Christophe De Margerie, warned Monday in the British newspaper Financial Times that oil producers already are near their production levels. Worldwide, the crude oil production is never higher than 89 million barrels per day. These are four million barrels per day less than he previously thought. The current demand for oil is about 84 million barrels per day. The IEA expects that the long term oil need for 2030 will certainly have grown to 100 million barrels per day.
Tension
According to De Margerie, the companies limited by the high cost of new projects, for example, in Canada and the continued political tensions in Iran and Iraq.
The current low oil revenues, according to him not only at the expense of new projects. They shall also ensure that existing projects are more likely to be stopped because it is too expensive they are longer in operation.
By Oilism.com
January 21st, 2009 at 05:31am
Under China Oil+ Middle East+ OPEC+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil and gas+ Oil politics+ Russian Oil & Gas
By signing the gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine the oil price fell back sharply. The price of a barrel of U.S. light crude oil now hovers around 34 dollars, a decrease of over 7 percent with earlier this week.
In December 2008, crude oil prices fell for the first time since the summer of 2004 under the 40 dollar per barrel barrier. In July 2008, oil prices showed a record of more than 147 dollars a barrel.
The oil price now strongly react on the developments in the Middle East and the gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Prime Minister Julia Timosjenko Russian gas will continue to flow to Ukraine and other European customers as from yesterday.
Credit Crisis & Oil demand
The oil price falls due a weakening oil demand. After 25 years of growth, the demand for oil in 2008 decreased by 0.3 percent. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that the worldwide oil demand in 2009 will fall further, probably by 0.6 percent.
For 2009, the IEA expects we will see a bottom in the oil demand, lowering with 940,000 barrels of crude oil per day to 85.3 million in total. “It’s the biggest change in our estimate over the last couple of years,” said David Fyfe of the IEA chief marketing officer.
In earlier reports, the institute published a growth for 2009 in oil demand after the losses of 2008, this mainly based upon the increasing demand of the emerging economies. But, these estimates are now showing that the Chinese oil demand will grow with just 90,000 barrels a day, which is the lowest increase in eight years time.
By Oilism.com
January 7th, 2009 at 05:43am
Under Oil Price 2009+ Oil and gas+ Oil business+ Oil politics+ Russian Oil & Gas
KIEV - On Wednesday Russia shut down all gas deliveries intended for the European market through the pipelines in the Ukraine because of the gas conflict between Kiev and Moscow.
This is said by the Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz. About 80 percent of Russian natural gas that is destined for Europe passes through pipelines in Ukraine.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is without any Russian gas. Local news agency CTK reported Wednesday all supplies of Russian gas are interrupted. Gas company RWE Transgas has taken steps to increase imports from Norway to help people who are trapped without gas.
Austria & Romania
Austria also announced Wednesday that all gas supplies from Russia are stopped. Futher more Romania reported not receiving any more gas from Russia since Wednesday. Tuesday, the gas supplies to Romania were already down by 75 percent.
Supplies
Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said Tuesday that if the Ukraine does not pass the gas to Europe, there is no point supplying this country with gas. Kiev and Moscow are arguing over an unpaid gas bill and the gas prices in general. Three years ago, Russia turned off the gas tap to Ukraine due a similar dispute.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko asked Russia in a letter to President Dmitri Medvedev to resume gas deliveries to European countries immediately.
Criticism EU summit on Russian oil conflict
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, thinks it is unacceptable that Russia stopped supplying oil & gas to Western Europe. Barroso said this today after consultations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who joined in the criticism against Russia.
Especially German and Polish refineries are the victims of the oil conflict. Russia closed yesterday by the oil Belarus to these countries. In a package of proposals from the European Commission, which will be presented tomorrow, has been clear that the EU should take action to reduce the reliance on Russia as an energy supplier. Half of the oil in Europe comes from Russia. According to a report, the European economy will crash sooner or later when the energy policies are not drastically changed. Barroso askes for joint energy policy in Europe.
By Oilism.com
December 28th, 2008 at 03:22pm
Under Crude oil+ Historical oil prices+ Oil Price 2008+ Oil Price 2009+ energy prices
Oil prices significantly lower! In London quoted a barrel of Brent oil $ 37.49, its lowest level since December 2004.
The prices of crude oil fell more than expected last week on US oil markets. Due an Oil stock report published on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy. These figures showed a stronger increase than most analysts expected. The stocks of crude oil increased with 3.101 billion barrels to 318.188 billion barrels of crude oil.
In Cushing, Oklahoma, oil stocks rose with 1.2 million barrels to a record high of 28.7 million barrels. This stock is used for the distribution of the oil used for Nymex future trading markets. Petrol stocks rose by 3.336 billion barrels to 207.295 billion barrels. Analysts here calculated an increase of 600,000 barrels. The stocks of heating oil and diesel increased also a lot stronger than expected, 1814 million barrels to a grand total of 135.337 billion barrels. Analysts here assumed a decline of 100,000 barrels. It is obvious our oil specialist, future brokers and technical analysts were betting on the wrong side again the last couple of weeks. Worldwide oil markets are showing drastic volatile downwards moves since the summer of 2008. This picture shows oil prices from 2001 till 2009 and it may be clear that oil prices of 200 USD are far away and we are back on the levels of 2004 within six months time.
(more…)
By Oilism.com
November 12th, 2008 at 05:55pm
Under OPEC+ Oil Price 2008+ Oil Price 2009+ Oil price+ Production levels+ energy prices
NEW YORK - Oil prices fell Wednesday to its lowest level in 22 months time. That was caused by speculation about a reduction in demand due to the deteriorating economic conditions.
A barrel of U.S. crude oil (159 liters) fell by 5.8 percent to 55.86 dollars.
The U.S. government gave an extra boost to speculations by downwards adjusting the forecast for global oil demand for 2009.
Oil Consumption
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) expects that consumption will decline slightly next year to an average 85.9 million barrels per day.
The demand in the United States, the largest buyer of crude oil in the world, will decrease with more than 1 million barrels per day. That is since 1980 not seen on the world wide oil markets.
OPEC
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) told earlier this week oil productions will further decrease as the oil price continues to fall.
Last week, OPEC reduced production already with 1.5 million barrels per day, but the price of crude oil barely reacted to this production cut.
Last July, oil prices reached another record high of 147 dollars per barrel. Then the price plummet quickly followed by an OPEC production cut not long after that .
By Oilism.com
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